Adwolf, Virginia 7 Day Forecast
NWS Local Southwest VA. Outlook Discussion NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion County Warning Area [CWA]: RNK Regional NWS Weather Office: Blacksburg, VA 000 FXUS61 KRNK 070015 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 715 PM EST MON FEB 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE GREENBRIER AND SHENANDOAH VALLEYS TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH EAST UNITED STATES. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY... STOUT UPPER WAVE WILL CUT QUICKLY ACROSS WEST VA TONIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL ONLY KICK UP WINDS...CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MAYBE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER. THIS DISTURBANCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE WEST VA/VA BORDER ATTM. SOME OF THESE CLDS WILL BURN OFF WITH LACK OF HEATING...THE REST WILL SPREAD INTO THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANADOAH VALLEYS TONIGHT. PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE MAY REMAIN LARGELY UNAFFECTED...SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND GRADIENT ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLTOPS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY FROM 6Z-12Z/7A TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER HTS. WITH LACK OF LOW STRATUS IN COMPARISON TO THIS MORNING...MOST SPOTS SHOULD FLIRT WITH THE MIDDLE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM EST MONDAY... MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS USUAL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING/COVERAGE DETAILS WITH ANY ASSOCIATED POPS/QPF. NAM IS SOMEWHAT OF A DRY OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED WITH GFS/CMC/ECMWF WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS/POPS DURING FROM EARLY WED THRU THE DAY. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS SIMILAR TO MANY OF THE FRONTS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE CWA THIS WINTER. DEPENDING ON TIME OF ONSET PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS BELOW FREEZING IN MOST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND H85 TEMPS BELOW 0C AS WELL. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE WESTERNS MOUNTAINS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND LACK OF MOISTURE SUGGEST VERY LIGHT QPF OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY CHILLY AIR SPILLING EASTWARD. COULD STILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE NEAR 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER IF CLOUDS PERSIST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 305 PM EST MONDAY... WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL CONDITIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR LOW PRESSURE TO FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST. 00Z EURO AND 12Z GFS KEEP SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WELL TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST ALTHOUGH 12Z CMC LIFTS SFC LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING BACK INTO OUR AREA. STILL WAY TOO EARLY FOR ANY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION SO FOR NOW KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SAT AND DRYING LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOK CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN ANY EVENT WITH H85 AIR DOWN TO AROUND -12C OR SO BY EARLY MONDAY IN THE NORTHERN CWA. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 700 PM EST MONDAY... LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY MVFR CIGS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS...WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EAST OF BLUE RIDGE SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AT KLYH/KDAN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TUEDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. FAST FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS BACK TO AT LEAST THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/KM NEAR TERM...KM SHORT TERM...PC LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...PM
NWS Local Hazardous Weather Outlook
000 FLUS41 KRNK 061611 HWORNK HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1111 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>045-071615- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON- CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE- PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL- APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE- GREENBRIER- 1111 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
Public Information Statement (If Any) 000 NOUS41 KRNK 051556 PNSRNK NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>045-060500- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1056 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 ...WE CELEBRATE NATIONAL WEATHERPERSON DAY... TODAY COMMEMORATES THE BIRTH OF JOHN JEFFRIES IN 1744. JEFFRIES...ONE OF AMERICAS FIRST WEATHER OBSERVERS...BEGAN TAKING DAILY WEATHER OBSERVATIONS IN BOSTON IN 1774 AND HE TOOK THE FIRST BALLOON OBSERVATION IN 1784. THIS IS A DAY TO RECOGNIZE THE MEN AND WOMEN WHO COLLECTIVELY PROVIDE AMERICANS WITH THE BEST WEATHER... WATER... AND CLIMATE FORECASTS AND WARNING SERVICES OF ANY NATION. MANY OF US TAKE WEATHER INFORMATION FOR GRANTED. TURN ON A LIGHT SWITCH...YOU GET LIGHT. TURN ON YOUR TELEVISION OR RADIO...OR CHECK A WEB SITE AND YOU GET THE WEATHER FORECAST. IT IS EASY TO FORGET THAT AROUND THE CLOCK...DEDICATED METEOROLOGISTS...HYDROLOGISTS...TECHNICIANS AND WEATHERCASTERS ARE VIGILANTLY CREATING FORECASTS TO HELP YOU PLAN YOUR DAY...AND ISSUING WARNINGS TO HELP KEEP YOU SAFE. THE MEN AND WOMEN AT YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE GATHER THE RAW WEATHER DATA...ANALYZE THE DATA... AND STUDY NUMERICAL COMPUTER MODELS IN ORDER TO ISSUE THE WEATHER AND RIVER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. SPECIALIZED MARINE AND AVIATION FORECASTS HELP ENHANCE THE NATIONAL ECONOMY. SPOT FORECASTS HELP FIREFIGHTERS CONTROL WILDFIRES AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS CONTAIN HAZARDOUS CHEMICAL SPILLS. EXTENSIVE CLIMATE RECORDS HELP ENGINEERS...ARCHITECTS...RESEARCHERS...INSURANCE COMPANIES AND UTILITIES. THE PRIMARY MISSION OF THE NWS IS TO PROVIDE THE AMERICAN PUBLIC WITH THE BEST POSSIBLE WARNING SERVICE TO SAVE LIVES. THE NWS COULD NOT ACCOMPLISH ITS MISSION WITHOUT A DIVERSE GROUP OF PARTNERS HELPING IN THE PROCESS. NATIONWIDE...MORE THAN 11 THOUSAND VOLUNTEER COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS TAKE REGULAR MEASUREMENTS OF TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION AND OTHER DATA...WHICH IS USED BY FORECASTERS AND CLIMATOLOGISTS. NEARLY 30 THOUSAND VOLUNTEER STORM SPOTTERS ARE TRAINED BY THE NWS TO PROVIDE VISUAL REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FORECAST OFFICES AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. VOLUNTEER AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS PROVIDE CRITICAL EMERGENCY COMMUNICATIONS DURING SEVERE WEATHER. MOST OF THE COLORFUL WEATHER GRAPHICS SEEN ON TELEVISION AND IN NEWSPAPERS COME FROM ANOTHER MEMBER OF THE AMERICAS WEATHER TEAM. COMMERCIAL WEATHER COMPANIES ENHANCE THE PRESENTATION OF THE NWS DATA AND INFORMATION FOR THEIR CLIENTS IN THE MEDIA AND IN MANY WEATHER-SENSITIVE INDUSTRIES...AND PROVIDE CUSTOMIZED FORECASTS AND SERVICES FOR CLIENTS. FINALLY...TELEVISION WEATHERCASTERS ARE THE MOST VISIBLE MEMBERS OF AMERICAS WEATHER TEAM. THEY ARE THE TRUSTED FACES MANY PEOPLE TURN TO FOR WEATHER INFORMATION...AND THEY RELAY THE OFFICIAL NWS WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER. ON NATIONAL WEATHERPERSONS DAY...THE NWS WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OF THE VOLUNTEERS AND OUR PARTNERS IN TELEVISION AND COMMERCIAL WEATHER SERVICES. THANK YOU AND HAPPY WEATHERPERSON DAY. $$
|
|
