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SPC Convective Outlook

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 Forecast Discussion

  
148 
ACUS01 KWNS 251632
SWODY1
SPC AC 251630

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur through
the afternoon and early evening hours across the central Gulf Coast
States northward into the middle Mississippi River Valley.

...Gulf Coast/lower MS River Valley/Mid-South...
Well ahead of the synoptic cold front, the outflow-focused remnants
of last night's convection continue to decelerate while slowly
progressing into western AL, while otherwise stalling along coastal
LA. It appears the strongest/most organized convection will remain
semi-focused this afternoon across southeast LA and possibly
near-coastal portions of MS/AL into the FL panhandle.
Low/mid-tropospheric winds should continue to gradually weaken
during the day, but some additional heating/destabilization will
nonetheless support some stronger mostly linear storms capable of
locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado. 

Otherwise, a few stronger storms could redevelop this afternoon
across the Mid-South/Lower MS River Valley vicinity near/just ahead
of the synoptic front within a modestly unstable environment.
However, semi-prevalent cloud cover and weakening mass convergence
should limit any such risk. 

...Middle MS River Valley...
The slow-moving closed/cold cyclone will continue to drift
east-northeastward today from the Ozarks toward central/southern IL
by tonight. Immediately ahead of this nearly stacked low, locally
stronger heating (60s F surface temperatures) and moderately steep
lapse rates, as noted between 850mb-650mb in the 12Z observed
sounding from Springfield MO, could support some stronger updrafts
this afternoon. Marginally severe and gusty winds could occur, and
sufficient low-level moisture/ambient vorticity could allow for a
few funnels.

..Guyer/Mosier.. 03/25/2017

$$