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 Forecast Discussion

  
000
ACUS01 KWNS 240449
SWODY1
SPC AC 240448

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms accompanied by at least some severe weather potential
will impact the Carolina coastal plain and portions of the adjacent
Piedmont.

...Southeast...

24/00z model guidance is in good agreement regarding the progression
of upper low from central GA to just south of ILM at daybreak
Tuesday morning.  This low-latitude feature will induce forcing for
ascent across the coastal plain and adjacent coastal waters such
that widespread convection is expected within a focused warm
advection zone much of the period.

Early this morning, a fairly organized squall line is advancing
across SC and this activity should overturn much of the instability
that currently resides across the coastal plain.  However, exit
region of 500mb speed max will spread across GA into SC early in the
period and renewed thunderstorm development is expected along a
reinforced warm front that should struggle to advance inland due to
aforementioned widespread precipitation.  Given the extensive
convection expected across this region it appears buoyancy will be
limited with primary storm mode being thunderstorm clusters.  Even
so, strengthening shear profiles favor some organization and perhaps
a few embedded supercell structures.  For these reasons will
maintain MRGL risk for damaging winds/hail and perhaps an isolated
tornado.  Severe threat will gradually shift toward the NC coast
during the latter half of the period where both the NAM and GFS
allow moisture/instability to return to this portion of NC within a
zone of focused warm advection.

..Darrow/Leitman.. 04/24/2017

$$