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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: RNK
Regional NWS Weather Office: Blacksburg, VA

753
FXUS61 KRNK 212312
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
612 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore will maintain a warmer southwest flow
across the region tonight into Monday. A strong cold front will
approach from the west later Monday, before crossing the region
Monday night into early Tuesday. Cool high pressure follows the
front with drier weather on gusty northwest winds into midweek.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 336 PM EST Sunday...

High pressure centered across the Southeast will slide east tonight
and Monday into the Atlantic ocean.  The warm front in the Ohio
Valley this afternoon will lift northeast tonight into Monday as
the low pressure center moves northeast.

The clockwise flow around the high pressure center is pushing warm
and moist air northward into our region. The warm advection stratus
is spreading east across the Appalachians. With the WSR-88d tracking
some light moisture this afternoon mainly in the west, increased
pops to allow for a slight chance of light rain and added the
mention of spotty drizzle in the western portions tonight. Low
temperatures tonight will range from around 30 degrees in the
colder locations with less clouds and snow pack to the mid 40s
across the higher ridges. The warmest readings will be across
the ridgetops where winds will be stronger with better mixing.

As the low pressure center moves to near Chicago by 00z
Tuesday, a cold front will approach us from the west. The chance
of showers will increase Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
Rich moisture will spread north along the southern Blue ridge
mountains. It is going to be mild Monday with Highs from the
upper 40s in the mountains to around 60 degrees in the piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 336 PM EST Sunday...

Warm front lifts north Sunday night into Monday with warm advection
and southwest flow increasing. Will see some sun in the east Monday
though cloudiness will move in aloft quickly ahead of the front.
Models overall still advertising a line of showers, low topped with
limited instability. Shear is high and shallow convection seems
likely where winds aloft gust to the surface along the line of
showers. At the moment SPC has not threat of severe, but cannot rule
out some strong winds Monday evening/overnight, mainly southwest
over the NC mountains/foothills.

Will see area of showers lift out by midday Tuesday with lingering
rain showers in the west. Colder air arrives Tuesday afternoon in
the mountains with a few snow showers possible but moisture appears
to dry out fast.

Expect post-front winds Tuesday to possibly reach advisory levels
along the Blue Ridge with 8h jet of 40-50kts and 4-6mb 6 hr pressure
rises. Cloudiness may inhibit some of the stronger gusts. These
winds along with potential gusty winds with showers will be
mentioned in the HWO.

Temperatures in the 50s to around 60 Monday cool to the 40s Tuesday
in the mountains with falling temps over the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 PM EST Sunday...

Dry weather expect into Friday as high pressure moves across the
area then sets up along the northeast, while upper trough digs
across the central and northern plains. Will start to see moisture
work northeast on southwest flow late Friday into Friday night.

Better threat of rain showers moves in late Saturday into Sunday
ahead of slow moving front, as the front becomes parallel to the
upper flow. These looks like a good threat for seeing an inch or
more of rain. Colder air will be delayed until Sunday night but we
could see some accumulating snow showers in the mountains per strong
forcing aloft with trough.

Temperatures will average above normal this period, falling back
toward normal or below beyond Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 610 PM EST Sunday...

Overall VFR to ocnl MVFR cloud bases to persist overnight as
passing bands of strato-cu work across the region into early
Monday. While VFR ceilings are likely in the east, the best
chance at seeing MVFR will continue to reside over the western
mountains. Visibilities are expected to remain VFR into
tonight, then patchy MVFR fog is possible overnight into Monday
morning.

Expect mainly VFR for much of the day on Monday with a gradual
increase in MVFR cigs from the south and west ahead of an
upstream cold front by later in the afternoon. Appears a few
showers well ahead of the front could arrive in the west by
later in the day but for now leaving out any mention. South
to southeast winds will also increase with speeds of 10-20 kts
possible in the afternoon, including gusts to perhaps 25 kts or
higher ridges.

NOTAM...The ASOS at KDAN remains INOP tonight due to a power
supply failure and likely wont return to service until sometime
later Monday. Therefore the observation remains missing at this
time. Also since lower ceilings may impact the site, TAF
amendments will not occur until data is once again available
from the ASOS. This includes an addition of AMD NOT SKED in the
terminal forecast for now at KDAN.


Extended Discussion...
Sub-VFR conditions are expected to overspread the area from
west to east ahead of a strong cold front Monday night as a
swath of showers passes across overnight into early Tuesday.
In addition an embedded QLCS with isolated thunderstorms, may
accompany the front overnight including a 50-60kt low level jet.
Consequently, the greatest concern with these showers will be
strong wind gusts, potentially of 45-50 mph or possibly even
greater for a short duration in the Monday night/early Tuesday
morning time frame. Strong gusty northwest winds are expected
behind the front Tuesday into Wednesday. VFR ceilings should
return to the Piedmont by Tuesday afternoon, but MVFR ceilings
with low clouds and potentially -SHSN can be expected across the
westernmost sites, and possibly as far east at times as KBCB.
High pressure and VFR conditions along with diminishing winds
should return to the entire area by Wednesday. Dry weather
including good flying conditions can be expected Thursday and
Friday.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 325 PM EST Friday...

NOAA Weather Radio, WXL60 (Roanoke Transmitter) which
broadcasts at 162.475 MHz remains off the air. The phone company
reported that the circuit line had been cut and will take until
Monday January 22nd to fix it.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...WP

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather