000
FXUS61 KRNK 070015
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EST MON FEB 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE GREENBRIER AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH EAST UNITED STATES. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LITTLE
FANFARE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

STOUT UPPER WAVE WILL CUT QUICKLY ACROSS WEST VA TONIGHT...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL ONLY KICK UP WINDS...CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MAYBE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER. THIS DISTURBANCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE WEST VA/VA BORDER ATTM. SOME OF THESE
CLDS WILL BURN OFF WITH LACK OF HEATING...THE REST WILL SPREAD
INTO THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANADOAH VALLEYS TONIGHT.
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE MAY REMAIN LARGELY UNAFFECTED...SUCH THAT
TEMPS MAY FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND GRADIENT
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLTOPS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE
ABOVE GUIDANCE. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY
FROM 6Z-12Z/7A TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER HTS. WITH
LACK OF LOW STRATUS IN COMPARISON TO THIS MORNING...MOST SPOTS
SHOULD FLIRT WITH THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EST MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND REACHING THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS USUAL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING/COVERAGE DETAILS WITH ANY ASSOCIATED POPS/QPF. NAM IS
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED WITH GFS/CMC/ECMWF WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS/POPS
DURING FROM EARLY WED THRU THE DAY. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS SIMILAR TO MANY OF THE FRONTS THAT HAVE
AFFECTED THE CWA THIS WINTER. DEPENDING ON TIME OF ONSET
PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING
LOWS BELOW FREEZING IN MOST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND H85 TEMPS
BELOW 0C AS WELL. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE WESTERNS MOUNTAINS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND LACK OF MOISTURE
SUGGEST VERY LIGHT QPF OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH LITTLE IF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY CHILLY AIR SPILLING EASTWARD.
COULD STILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE
NEAR 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER IF CLOUDS
PERSIST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EST MONDAY...

WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL
CONDITIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR LOW PRESSURE TO FORM
SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST. 00Z EURO
AND 12Z GFS KEEP SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WELL TO THE EAST OFF
THE COAST ALTHOUGH 12Z CMC LIFTS SFC LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING BACK INTO OUR AREA. STILL WAY TOO
EARLY FOR ANY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION SO FOR NOW KEPT SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR SAT AND DRYING LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS LOOK CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN ANY EVENT WITH H85 AIR DOWN
TO AROUND -12C OR SO BY EARLY MONDAY IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST MONDAY...

LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY MVFR CIGS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS...WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EAST OF BLUE RIDGE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR AT KLYH/KDAN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA TUEDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS.

FAST FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS BACK TO AT LEAST THE
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KM
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...PM