000 FXUS61 KRNK 070015 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 715 PM EST MON FEB 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE GREENBRIER AND SHENANDOAH VALLEYS TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH EAST UNITED STATES. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY... STOUT UPPER WAVE WILL CUT QUICKLY ACROSS WEST VA TONIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL ONLY KICK UP WINDS...CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MAYBE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER. THIS DISTURBANCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE WEST VA/VA BORDER ATTM. SOME OF THESE CLDS WILL BURN OFF WITH LACK OF HEATING...THE REST WILL SPREAD INTO THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANADOAH VALLEYS TONIGHT. PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE MAY REMAIN LARGELY UNAFFECTED...SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND GRADIENT ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLTOPS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY FROM 6Z-12Z/7A TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER HTS. WITH LACK OF LOW STRATUS IN COMPARISON TO THIS MORNING...MOST SPOTS SHOULD FLIRT WITH THE MIDDLE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM EST MONDAY... MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS USUAL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING/COVERAGE DETAILS WITH ANY ASSOCIATED POPS/QPF. NAM IS SOMEWHAT OF A DRY OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED WITH GFS/CMC/ECMWF WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS/POPS DURING FROM EARLY WED THRU THE DAY. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS SIMILAR TO MANY OF THE FRONTS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE CWA THIS WINTER. DEPENDING ON TIME OF ONSET PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS BELOW FREEZING IN MOST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND H85 TEMPS BELOW 0C AS WELL. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE WESTERNS MOUNTAINS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND LACK OF MOISTURE SUGGEST VERY LIGHT QPF OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY CHILLY AIR SPILLING EASTWARD. COULD STILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE NEAR 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER IF CLOUDS PERSIST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 305 PM EST MONDAY... WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL CONDITIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR LOW PRESSURE TO FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST. 00Z EURO AND 12Z GFS KEEP SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WELL TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST ALTHOUGH 12Z CMC LIFTS SFC LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING BACK INTO OUR AREA. STILL WAY TOO EARLY FOR ANY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION SO FOR NOW KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SAT AND DRYING LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOK CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN ANY EVENT WITH H85 AIR DOWN TO AROUND -12C OR SO BY EARLY MONDAY IN THE NORTHERN CWA. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 700 PM EST MONDAY... LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY MVFR CIGS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS...WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EAST OF BLUE RIDGE SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AT KLYH/KDAN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TUEDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. FAST FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS BACK TO AT LEAST THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/KM NEAR TERM...KM SHORT TERM...PC LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...PM
NWS Office Area Forecast Discussion
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